Climate – the visible driver
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El Niño is an accelerant, not the underlying driver. Even without its influence, a warmer atmosphere is already loading the UK weather system with heavier rainfall, hotter summers and more frequent high-impact extremes.
On 11 October 2026, the UK Government officially launched the Flood and Drought Resilience Taskforce to address extremes in UK weather and build long-term climate resilience. (DEFRA)
Property owners must accept that climate risk is no longer episodic. It’s a standing pressure on flood, storm, escape-of-water, subsidence and wildfire exposure.
2.1 El Niño – The claims evidence
Significant storm / flood years over the last decade
Strong El Niño years are highlighted below in dark grey
Since winter 2023 – 16 named storms have hit the UK, driving surges in property damage insurance claims of up to 331% above business-as-usual. (Sedgwick)
No two major storm events are the same. The impact depends on severity – wind speed, duration and geographic extent.
In any wide-scale event, surge shock overlays business-as-usual costs, with repairs taking longer as resources are stretched.
Sedgwick’s research project with the University of the West of England for Flood Re demonstrated that flooded property repairs cost 9x more when the water levels rise 100 mm above floor level and are prolonged.
The claims data from Storm Babet (18-21 October 2023), which struck during a strong El Niño, and Storm Bert (22-25 November 2024) provide insight into what could happen this coming winter:
named storms have hit the UK since winter 2023
higher repair costs when floodwater rises 100 mm above floor level
Storm Babet
of adjuster-managed domestic flooded property claims made up
of total reserves – averaging
per claim
Storm bert
of adjuster-managed domestic flooded property claims made up
of total reserves – averaging
per claim
Flood-damaged property claims as a proportion of all storm claims:
2.2 Heavy rainfall events
Rainfall events exceeding 50 mm, accumulated over a 24-hour period, have increased over the last decade. Together with a growing surface-water exposure base, this means the UK is facing more frequent, more widespread, and more complex flood-related property damage.
English properties are currently at risk from flooding from river, sea or surface water, heading for eight million – one in four – by mid-century. (Environment Agency)
of roads in England are currently in flood-risk areas, rising to 46% by mid-century, with implications for site access, business interruption, and emergency repair logistics. (Environment Agency)
of UK home flood claims are caused by sudden surface-water flash flooding rather than riverine or sea flooding.
(LexisNexis)
of flash-flood claims stay under £5,000 per property and resolve significantly faster than river breaches. (Sedgwick)
Average UK flooded property claim lifecycles – 2026
Shorter claim lifecycles
Sedgwick claims data shows that flood claim lifecycles, in normal conditions, have generally improved over the last decade. After rising between 2015 and 2017, average time to conclusion has fallen since 2018, with the biggest gains in 2020-2021 and 2024-2026.
In 2025, compared with 2024, for adjuster-managed flooded property claims received, Sedgwick recorded:
reduction in lifecycle duration for commercial claims, which remain more time-consuming given their greater complexity and value
reduction in lifecycle duration for domestic claims
Key drivers
However, these gains are at risk in surge
Better preparation and triage, supported by digital claims management
Better integration of flood resilience processes
Reduced strip-out driven by technical innovation
Remote monitoring drives reduced drying times
Improved contractor network processes
2.3 Warmer, drier summers
The UK is experiencing longer and more regular heatwaves – four of the last six years have been subsidence surge years. 2026 broke all records, with Sedgwick seeing subsidence claims volumes tracking:
higher than the 2022 subsidence surge
above normal business-as-usual levels
higher than experienced during 2025
Subsidence is no longer an occasional anomaly. The British Geological Survey (BGS) GeoClimate Shrink-Swell dataset (June 2026) projects that by 2070:
properties could be exposed to clay-related ground movement
potentially rising to 4.2 million under a high greenhouse gas emissions scenario
average subsidence claim payout in H1 2025 (ABI)
annual worst-case scenario cost by 2030 (PwC)
London is particularly exposed because many properties are built on shrinkable clay and the building stock is dense. By 2070, the proportion of properties affected could rise from around 26% to more than half. (British Geological Survey).
This makes subsidence a recurring portfolio-management issue rather than a rare, exceptional peril.
The growing impact is a shift from isolated property damage to repeated, climate-driven repair pressure – increasing claim volumes, business interruption and the resilience burden across whole portfolios.
Sedgwick average UK subsidence property claim lifecycles 2026
(Sedgwick Claims Data)
These highly technical, long-tail repairs are being picked up by a limited number of specialist building contractors. Add more extreme weather, with prolonged heavy rainfall on hard, dry ground, and the potential for flooding increases significantly.
ACT NOW Are your flood-response protocols tested?
Storms Babet and Bert showed how quickly flood can dominate a surge event. Speed of response depends on preparation – lock in your repair capacity before the worst happens.”
Keith Walters Director, Sedgwick Repair Solutions
