The El Niño stress test –

Climate, capacity and the future of property repairs

2026/27 is set to be defined by the largest El Niño in living memory. For the UK, the meteorological headline is a wetter, stormier autumn and winter landing on a property repair industry that has scaled back its capacity in line with recent benign weather.

Capacity, not claims volume, is the pinch point. A massive surge in flood claims could generate a service-delivery crisis, due to:

Pressure on claims management resources
Reduced contractor capacity
Slower, more complex repairs
Longer stays in alternative accommodation
Extended business interruption periods

What this report covers

Drawing on Sedgwick’s experience managing 16 named storm surge events 2023 to date – this report shows how a strong El Niño could intensify the convergence of climate pressures, repair inflation, contractor shortages, underinsurance, and new statutory duties into a single risk environment.

Every exposure or fault line comes with specific ACT NOW checks to help pressure-test property portfolio readiness.

Where this report lands

For brokers and advisers – it provides a strategic conversation platform – a way to engage clients around evidence packs, risk engineering, underwriter confidence, claims defensibility and resilience investment.

For asset owners and investors – it’s a framework for prioritising spend and identifying portfolio vulnerabilities before they affect value or insurability.

Know your exposure.

Coming soon

Chapter two – The new standard for property repair

This chapter sets out the future expectations for compliant, evidence-led and lower-carbon repair across modern property portfolios, in and out of surge.

Chapter three – Sector deep dives and case studies

Chapter three applies the property resilience framework across key sectors, using case studies, evidence requirements and a 90-day action plan to guide portfolio owners, brokers and insurers.